La paire EUR/USD atteint son plus haut niveau depuis avril grâce à la Fed !!!

L'EUR/USD a augmenté en raison de la réunion de la Fed la veille. La Fed a légèrement ralenti la hausse des taux à 0,25%, mais le patron de la Fed, Jerome Powell, a tenu des propos plus favorables pour l'EUR/USD que ce à quoi les traders s'attendaient.

Powell a déclaré que le processus de désinflation a commencé et a même ouvert la voie à une baisse de taux cette année. En raison de ces déclarations, le dollar a fortement baissé et cela a propulsé l'EUR/USD à la hausse.

Cependant, ce jeudi, les traders devront se concentrer sur la réunion de la BCE, qui devrait se montrer moins favorable que la Fed.  

Les traders s'attendent à ce que la BCE augmente ses taux de 50 points de base. À partir d'un point de vue graphique, la paire EUR/USD a franchi le seuil psychologique de 1,10, ce qui est un signal haussier. Les prochains objectifs potentiels à la hausse sont les sommets d'hier à 1.1033 et le seuil de 1.11.

The EUR/USD exchange rate rose significantly following the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday, reaching 1.1033, the highest it has been since April 2022. As widely expected, the Fed slowed its interest rate hike to 0.25%, but its chairman, Jerome Powell, made more dovish comments than traders were expecting during the press conference.  

Powell stated that the disinflation process has begun and left the door open to a potential interest rate decrease this year if inflation drops more rapidly. However, he also stated that the Fed still has work to do, which suggests a 0.25% rate hike next month. The market currently has an 85.6% probability of a 0.25% rate hike by the Fed on March 22 and a 14.4% probability of a monetary status quo. This has resulted in a negative impact on the dollar and a corresponding increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

The attention of forex traders will turn to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, which is expected to be less dovish than the Fed. Based on recent hawkish statements from ECB members, the consensus is that the ECB will raise its interest rates by 50 basis points and signal further rate hikes.  

The high market expectations make it difficult for Thursday's event to be a significant surprise and cause a significant increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate. In addition, the impact of the Fed meeting on Wednesday has already partially depleted the potential for an increase. The next key event for the EUR/USD will be the US non-farm payrolls report for January.

From a technical standpoint, the breach of the psychological 1.10 threshold is a bullish signal and is now an immediate support before the 1.09-1.0930 zone. To the upside, yesterday's highs of 1.1033 and the 1.11 threshold are the next potential targets. The 100-day moving average is also close to crossing the 200-day moving average, which would be another bullish signal following the 50-day moving average crossing above the 100-day moving average on December 7 and the "golden cross" of the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average on December 29.

 

Source : https://fr.investing.com/news/forex-news/leurusd-franchit-110-suite-a-la-fed-correction-en-vue-face-a-la-bce-ce-jeudi--2150937 
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